Voter Demographics

Who can vote in 2027, by generation and age band: 2019 census age structure projected to election day, joined with the IEBC 2022 register.

Scope

Population (2019)

893,644

Registered voters (2022)

416,756

Voting-age by Aug 2027 (est.)

653,057

Gen-z eligible 2027 (est.)

302,288

46.3% of the 2027 voting-age est.

Gen-z (born 1997-2012)

302,288 eligible

≈ 192,909 of today's registered voters, if registration mirrors the age structure.

Youth (18-34 in 2027)

356,427

The bloc every 2027 campaign is chasing.

Millennials (born 1981-1996)

176,291

Peak-turnout generation in Busia.

Age structure · Busia

2019 census population by five-year band.

0-4

113,304

5-9

127,283

10-14

138,934

15-19

117,292

20-24

76,770

25-29

58,577

30-34

55,436

35-39

39,462

40-44

36,218

45-49

27,311

50-54

24,297

55-59

22,322

60-64

18,115

65-69

13,216

70-74

10,429

75-79

6,154

80-84

4,333

85-89

2,714

90-94

941

95-99

399

100+

137

Voters by constituency and ward · Busia

County age share (46.3%) applied to each seat's 2022 registered voters, an estimate, since sub-county age data isn't published.

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Estimated 2027 voting-age population by ward (county age share × 2022 register). Darker = more voting-age residents.

Methodology & sources

Age structure: KNBS 2019 Census (via OCHA COD-PS, data.humdata.org/dataset/cod-ps-ken), from the 2019 census county tables (KNBS via OCHA).
Registered voters: IEBC 2022 General Election register (per ward), the same figures behind every seat page here.
2027 projections age the census cohorts forward to August 2027 (whoever was N years old in 2019 is N+8), ignoring mortality and migration; treat them as estimates.
Gen-z = born 1997-2012; those born by August 2009 are eligible in 2027. Constituency and ward figures apply the county's age share to the seat's registered voters.
These are eligibility and registration figures, never turnout predictions.