Voter Demographics

Who can vote in 2027, by generation and age band: 2019 census age structure projected to election day, joined with the IEBC 2022 register.

Scope

Population (2019)

841,314

Registered voters (2022)

201,473

Voting-age by Aug 2027 (est.)

594,482

Gen-z eligible 2027 (est.)

305,802

51.4% of the 2027 voting-age est.

Gen-z (born 1997-2012)

305,802 eligible

≈ 103,638 of today's registered voters, if registration mirrors the age structure.

Youth (18-34 in 2027)

365,138

The bloc every 2027 campaign is chasing.

Millennials (born 1981-1996)

179,152

Peak-turnout generation in Garissa.

Age structure · Garissa

2019 census population by five-year band.

0-4

111,616

5-9

135,216

10-14

136,663

15-19

118,095

20-24

85,073

25-29

63,268

30-34

52,509

35-39

36,682

40-44

32,373

45-49

19,282

50-54

17,392

55-59

9,343

60-64

9,420

65-69

4,797

70-74

4,599

75-79

1,708

80-84

1,980

85-89

584

90-94

470

95-99

154

100+

Voters by constituency and ward · Garissa

County age share (51.4%) applied to each seat's 2022 registered voters, an estimate, since sub-county age data isn't published.

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Estimated 2027 voting-age population by ward (county age share × 2022 register). Darker = more voting-age residents.

Methodology & sources

Age structure: KNBS 2019 Census (via OCHA COD-PS, data.humdata.org/dataset/cod-ps-ken), from the 2019 census county tables (KNBS via OCHA).
Registered voters: IEBC 2022 General Election register (per ward), the same figures behind every seat page here.
2027 projections age the census cohorts forward to August 2027 (whoever was N years old in 2019 is N+8), ignoring mortality and migration; treat them as estimates.
Gen-z = born 1997-2012; those born by August 2009 are eligible in 2027. Constituency and ward figures apply the county's age share to the seat's registered voters.
These are eligibility and registration figures, never turnout predictions.