Voter Demographics

Who can vote in 2027, by generation and age band: 2019 census age structure projected to election day, joined with the IEBC 2022 register.

Scope

Population (2019)

1,131,918

Registered voters (2022)

551,071

Voting-age by Aug 2027 (est.)

809,263

Gen-z eligible 2027 (est.)

375,716

46.4% of the 2027 voting-age est.

Gen-z (born 1997-2012)

375,716 eligible

≈ 255,845 of today's registered voters, if registration mirrors the age structure.

Youth (18-34 in 2027)

444,315

The bloc every 2027 campaign is chasing.

Millennials (born 1981-1996)

228,157

Peak-turnout generation in Homa Bay.

Age structure · Homa Bay

2019 census population by five-year band.

0-4

155,694

5-9

166,961

10-14

181,334

15-19

136,787

20-24

95,992

25-29

75,504

30-34

74,303

35-39

49,941

40-44

43,999

45-49

32,152

50-54

23,576

55-59

24,500

60-64

21,795

65-69

17,352

70-74

14,234

75-79

7,394

80-84

5,556

85-89

3,124

90-94

1,049

95-99

481

100+

190

Voters by constituency and ward · Homa Bay

County age share (46.4%) applied to each seat's 2022 registered voters, an estimate, since sub-county age data isn't published.

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Estimated 2027 voting-age population by ward (county age share × 2022 register). Darker = more voting-age residents.

Methodology & sources

Age structure: KNBS 2019 Census (via OCHA COD-PS, data.humdata.org/dataset/cod-ps-ken), from the 2019 census county tables (KNBS via OCHA).
Registered voters: IEBC 2022 General Election register (per ward), the same figures behind every seat page here.
2027 projections age the census cohorts forward to August 2027 (whoever was N years old in 2019 is N+8), ignoring mortality and migration; treat them as estimates.
Gen-z = born 1997-2012; those born by August 2009 are eligible in 2027. Constituency and ward figures apply the county's age share to the seat's registered voters.
These are eligibility and registration figures, never turnout predictions.