Voter Demographics

Who can vote in 2027, by generation and age band: 2019 census age structure projected to election day, joined with the IEBC 2022 register.

Scope

Population (2019)

866,790

Registered voters (2022)

328,253

Voting-age by Aug 2027 (est.)

604,758

Gen-z eligible 2027 (est.)

265,470

43.9% of the 2027 voting-age est.

Gen-z (born 1997-2012)

265,470 eligible

≈ 144,093 of today's registered voters, if registration mirrors the age structure.

Youth (18-34 in 2027)

319,264

The bloc every 2027 campaign is chasing.

Millennials (born 1981-1996)

178,712

Peak-turnout generation in Kwale.

Age structure · Kwale

2019 census population by five-year band.

0-4

130,290

5-9

131,742

10-14

125,289

15-19

97,104

20-24

71,795

25-29

62,690

30-34

55,453

35-39

39,814

40-44

37,815

45-49

28,533

50-54

19,501

55-59

16,764

60-64

16,965

65-69

12,853

70-74

9,437

75-79

4,616

80-84

3,260

85-89

1,604

90-94

700

95-99

306

100+

259

Voters by constituency and ward · Kwale

County age share (43.9%) applied to each seat's 2022 registered voters, an estimate, since sub-county age data isn't published.

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Estimated 2027 voting-age population by ward (county age share × 2022 register). Darker = more voting-age residents.

Methodology & sources

Age structure: KNBS 2019 Census (via OCHA COD-PS, data.humdata.org/dataset/cod-ps-ken), from the 2019 census county tables (KNBS via OCHA).
Registered voters: IEBC 2022 General Election register (per ward), the same figures behind every seat page here.
2027 projections age the census cohorts forward to August 2027 (whoever was N years old in 2019 is N+8), ignoring mortality and migration; treat them as estimates.
Gen-z = born 1997-2012; those born by August 2009 are eligible in 2027. Constituency and ward figures apply the county's age share to the seat's registered voters.
These are eligibility and registration figures, never turnout predictions.