Voter Demographics

Who can vote in 2027, by generation and age band: 2019 census age structure projected to election day, joined with the IEBC 2022 register.

Scope

Population (2019)

1,208,277

Registered voters (2022)

641,913

Voting-age by Aug 2027 (est.)

930,388

Gen-z eligible 2027 (est.)

299,997

32.2% of the 2027 voting-age est.

Gen-z (born 1997-2012)

299,997 eligible

≈ 206,980 of today's registered voters, if registration mirrors the age structure.

Youth (18-34 in 2027)

412,941

The bloc every 2027 campaign is chasing.

Millennials (born 1981-1996)

392,029

Peak-turnout generation in Mombasa.

Age structure · Mombasa

2019 census population by five-year band.

0-4

147,903

5-9

129,986

10-14

115,424

15-19

100,733

20-24

139,733

25-29

142,628

30-34

122,217

35-39

89,113

40-44

71,818

45-49

52,267

50-54

33,457

55-59

24,072

60-64

16,034

65-69

10,243

70-74

6,395

75-79

3,045

80-84

1,858

85-89

803

90-94

323

95-99

152

100+

Voters by constituency and ward · Mombasa

County age share (32.2%) applied to each seat's 2022 registered voters, an estimate, since sub-county age data isn't published.

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Estimated 2027 voting-age population by ward (county age share × 2022 register). Darker = more voting-age residents.

Methodology & sources

Age structure: KNBS 2019 Census (via OCHA COD-PS, data.humdata.org/dataset/cod-ps-ken), from the 2019 census county tables (KNBS via OCHA).
Registered voters: IEBC 2022 General Election register (per ward), the same figures behind every seat page here.
2027 projections age the census cohorts forward to August 2027 (whoever was N years old in 2019 is N+8), ignoring mortality and migration; treat them as estimates.
Gen-z = born 1997-2012; those born by August 2009 are eligible in 2027. Constituency and ward figures apply the county's age share to the seat's registered voters.
These are eligibility and registration figures, never turnout predictions.