Voter Demographics

Who can vote in 2027, by generation and age band: 2019 census age structure projected to election day, joined with the IEBC 2022 register.

Scope

Population (2019)

310,318

Registered voters (2022)

100,014

Voting-age by Aug 2027 (est.)

206,674

Gen-z eligible 2027 (est.)

102,070

49.4% of the 2027 voting-age est.

Gen-z (born 1997-2012)

102,070 eligible

≈ 49,394 of today's registered voters, if registration mirrors the age structure.

Youth (18-34 in 2027)

122,767

The bloc every 2027 campaign is chasing.

Millennials (born 1981-1996)

60,505

Peak-turnout generation in Samburu.

Age structure · Samburu

2019 census population by five-year band.

0-4

50,681

5-9

52,963

10-14

48,343

15-19

36,178

20-24

29,248

25-29

22,494

30-34

17,697

35-39

10,768

40-44

10,032

45-49

8,324

50-54

5,497

55-59

4,197

60-64

4,619

65-69

2,793

70-74

2,910

75-79

1,436

80-84

1,169

85-89

532

90-94

244

95-99

139

100+

Voters by constituency and ward · Samburu

County age share (49.4%) applied to each seat's 2022 registered voters, an estimate, since sub-county age data isn't published.

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Estimated 2027 voting-age population by ward (county age share × 2022 register). Darker = more voting-age residents.

Methodology & sources

Age structure: KNBS 2019 Census (via OCHA COD-PS, data.humdata.org/dataset/cod-ps-ken), from the 2019 census county tables (KNBS via OCHA).
Registered voters: IEBC 2022 General Election register (per ward), the same figures behind every seat page here.
2027 projections age the census cohorts forward to August 2027 (whoever was N years old in 2019 is N+8), ignoring mortality and migration; treat them as estimates.
Gen-z = born 1997-2012; those born by August 2009 are eligible in 2027. Constituency and ward figures apply the county's age share to the seat's registered voters.
These are eligibility and registration figures, never turnout predictions.