Voter Demographics

Who can vote in 2027, by generation and age band: 2019 census age structure projected to election day, joined with the IEBC 2022 register.

Scope

Population (2019)

315,935

Registered voters (2022)

141,096

Voting-age by Aug 2027 (est.)

209,788

Gen-z eligible 2027 (est.)

95,928

45.7% of the 2027 voting-age est.

Gen-z (born 1997-2012)

95,928 eligible

≈ 64,518 of today's registered voters, if registration mirrors the age structure.

Youth (18-34 in 2027)

115,662

The bloc every 2027 campaign is chasing.

Millennials (born 1981-1996)

61,749

Peak-turnout generation in Tana River.

Age structure · Tana River

2019 census population by five-year band.

0-4

53,178

5-9

52,969

10-14

46,690

15-19

32,932

20-24

27,176

25-29

22,160

30-34

17,919

35-39

13,500

40-44

11,160

45-49

9,702

50-54

7,093

55-59

6,050

60-64

5,602

65-69

3,616

70-74

2,904

75-79

1,362

80-84

1,003

85-89

484

90-94

244

95-99

104

100+

Voters by constituency and ward · Tana River

County age share (45.7%) applied to each seat's 2022 registered voters, an estimate, since sub-county age data isn't published.

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Estimated 2027 voting-age population by ward (county age share × 2022 register). Darker = more voting-age residents.

Methodology & sources

Age structure: KNBS 2019 Census (via OCHA COD-PS, data.humdata.org/dataset/cod-ps-ken), from the 2019 census county tables (KNBS via OCHA).
Registered voters: IEBC 2022 General Election register (per ward), the same figures behind every seat page here.
2027 projections age the census cohorts forward to August 2027 (whoever was N years old in 2019 is N+8), ignoring mortality and migration; treat them as estimates.
Gen-z = born 1997-2012; those born by August 2009 are eligible in 2027. Constituency and ward figures apply the county's age share to the seat's registered voters.
These are eligibility and registration figures, never turnout predictions.