Voter Demographics

Who can vote in 2027, by generation and age band: 2019 census age structure projected to election day, joined with the IEBC 2022 register.

Scope

Population (2019)

393,160

Registered voters (2022)

231,932

Voting-age by Aug 2027 (est.)

309,574

Gen-z eligible 2027 (est.)

109,810

35.5% of the 2027 voting-age est.

Gen-z (born 1997-2012)

109,810 eligible

≈ 82,269 of today's registered voters, if registration mirrors the age structure.

Youth (18-34 in 2027)

133,207

The bloc every 2027 campaign is chasing.

Millennials (born 1981-1996)

86,956

Peak-turnout generation in Tharaka-Nithi.

Age structure · Tharaka-Nithi

2019 census population by five-year band.

0-4

40,384

5-9

43,202

10-14

48,124

15-19

42,701

20-24

31,642

25-29

26,849

30-34

27,912

35-39

24,423

40-44

21,248

45-49

19,990

50-54

13,749

55-59

13,914

60-64

11,107

65-69

9,193

70-74

7,660

75-79

4,083

80-84

3,145

85-89

1,985

90-94

881

95-99

638

100+

330

Voters by constituency and ward · Tharaka-Nithi

County age share (35.5%) applied to each seat's 2022 registered voters, an estimate, since sub-county age data isn't published.

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Estimated 2027 voting-age population by ward (county age share × 2022 register). Darker = more voting-age residents.

Methodology & sources

Age structure: KNBS 2019 Census (via OCHA COD-PS, data.humdata.org/dataset/cod-ps-ken), from the 2019 census county tables (KNBS via OCHA).
Registered voters: IEBC 2022 General Election register (per ward), the same figures behind every seat page here.
2027 projections age the census cohorts forward to August 2027 (whoever was N years old in 2019 is N+8), ignoring mortality and migration; treat them as estimates.
Gen-z = born 1997-2012; those born by August 2009 are eligible in 2027. Constituency and ward figures apply the county's age share to the seat's registered voters.
These are eligibility and registration figures, never turnout predictions.